UkrEngRus

“During the past 3 centuries human population has increased tenfold to 6000 million and fourfold in the 20th century

• Cattle population increased to 1400 million (one cow/family) by a factor of 4 during the past century

• There are currently some 20 billion (20,000 million) of farm animals worldwide

• Urbanisation grew more than tenfold in the past century almost half of the people live in cities and megacities

• Industrial output increased 40 times during the past century; energy use 16 times

• Almost 50 % of the land surface has been transformed by human action”

Paul Crutzen

Dutch Nobel prize winning atmospheric chemist***

“Fish catch increased 40 times

• The release of SO2 (110 Tg/year) by coal and oil burning is at least twice the sum of all natural emissions;

over land the increase has been 7 fold, causing acid rain, health effects, poor visibility and climate changes due to sulfate aerosols

• Releases of NO to the atmosphere from fossil fuel and biomass burning is larger than its natural inputs, causing regional high surface ozone levels

• Several climatically important ”greenhouse gases” have substantially increased in the atmosphere, eg.

CO2 by 40 %, CH4 by more than 100 %.”

Paul Crutzen

Dutch Nobel prize winning atmospheric chemist***

“Water use increased 9 fold during the past century to 800 m3 per capita / year;

65 % for irrigation, 25 % industry, ~10 % households

It takes 20, 000 litres of water to grow 1 kilo of coffee

11,000 litres of water to make a quarter pounder

5,000 litres of water to make 1 kilo of cheese

1 kg meat → 16000 litres of water

1 kg grain → 1000 litres of water”

Paul Crutzen

Dutch Nobel prize winning atmospheric chemist

Воєнна доктрина РФ в переліку загроз містить розширення НАТО і нарощування можливостей США та альнсу в цілому..*** У Стратегії Національної безпеки США дії Росії кваліфіковані як агресія що потребує протидії.. *** Росія реформує силові структури: відбувається створення Федеральної служби військ Національної Гвардії на базі Внутрішніх військ МВС, Федеральної міграційної служби та Федеральної служби контролю обігу наркотиків.. *** Глави оборонних відомств країн ЄС погодили новий план оборони і безпеки та домовилися створити новий штаб і спільні сили швидкого реагування.. ***

Political analyst, candidate of psychological sciences O.Cherednichenko: "The demographic problem in the sense of national security stands next to its fundamental basics such as energy supply and food provision.

***

 

The problem of demography is different from others due to their severity, urgency, existing contradictions, polarization of views and unbalanced judgments which is also negatively influenced by its excessive artificial sharpening. The last has already become the common phenomena, and even could not be questioned.

 

Several researchers argue that the reduction of the indigenous population is nearly a good thing for Ukraine, and labor shortages, like in Europe, can be overcome due to influx of labor from other countries. And this is almost the only way to save Ukraine from the demographic crisis (the main categories of illegal migrants detained by authorities at the state border of Ukraine, appeared to be citizens of the following countries: Afghanistan, India, Vietnam, Iraq, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, whose share in total is 95%. The greatest number among of them is citizens of Afghanistan - 32%, India - 25% and Vietnam - more than 13%). According to these experts, migrants are better adapted to the realities of liberal and global economy "and that depopulation – is the mile road for all "civilized countries". So we have to go to meet such views and free the territory of Ukraine, giving place to anyone who is better "adapted" to modern conditions. Without going into detailed analysis of such approaches we see the manipulative nature of this theory which can be used as a base to implement any political-economic project.

The demographic problem in the sense of national security stands next to its fundamental basics such as energy and food provision. It is covering all sides and aspects of human existence. Therefore, the path to stabilizing and increasing population cannot be limited only by the demographic science frame; it should embarrass all key spheres of human life. In addition, the demographics for the whole world - is also a major policy issue.

As for Ukraine, it draws attention almost complete absence (at the level of serious scientific development) of the projects which would be trying to resolve the demographic problems through the internal potential. Moreover, researchers often frankly frighten us by classical approach of ”reduktsionizm”. They try to keep everything simple and express confidence that if we will not solve the problem using immigrant workers, then we should expect a nearly complete extinction.

We need to discuss not how to overcome the demographic crisis due to new-comers, but how to adapt ourselves to it and what projects can be offered to overcome the negative demographic effects. It should be added that in 1900 the proportion of the population in developed countries to the whole world was about 30%, and in 2000 it dropped only to 10%.

We try to adjust our legislation to the European one without any critics and analysis. We are demanded to liberalize it in the field of migration, which first of all, the West needs. Ukraine, as we mentioned, is expected to "precipitate" streams of unskilled labor in its territory, to be a kind of filter. At the same time qualified personnel from Ukraine is continuing to flow to Western countries to meet their needs and we now are facing lack of specialists in business and engineering professions.

According to calculations based on UN methodology, each a specialist who left the country, withdrew from the public domain about 300 thousand dollars. According to the Council for the Study of Productive Forces of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the loss due to economic migration from the country can reach $10 billion. annually! “Zarobitchanstvo” as a mass phenomenon, does not contribute into the pension and social fund because this people do not pay taxes from their wages. Ukrainian labor migrants import in Ukraine about 5 billion dollars. The amount money earned by them yearly exceeds the total amount of foreign investment in the country. But the money mainly goes to housing, education of children, or just are spending out ineffectively. Only 3.6% workers try to start their own business because it is connected to considerable difficulties and flawed legislation. Our fellow citizens with higher education are working abroad, mostly as simple workers and thus lose their professional qualifications. Although today, the salary for example such professionals as electric welder, builder, plumber or electrical engineer in Ukraine are quite comparable with the salaries of our workers abroad.

It is difficult to say how many of our compatriots are working outside of Ukraine. Statistical data of various services and social studies provide a number from 2 to 7 million. Such a huge difference between the data clearly highlights the need to increase public attention to this problem.

The next aspect of the demographic characteristics of the problem lies in the area of so-called pluralistic, multicultural democracy. It was found that people feel more confident and happy when they live alongside similar to themselves. So for those who live permanently in the country, immigrants and aliens always look like a threat. Already grown third-generation immigrants who do not know English, and more than 32% of U.S. citizens speak Spanish. Like the U.S. there is language situation in Britain, where nearly third part of students do not know English, and teachers have to invite the lessons translators. So multykulturism that began to evolve in terms of direct awareness of diversity, gradually developed into the system, which began to put at first place the "racial and ethnic differences, and not some other values.

In terms of perspective, which is pursued by contemporary elite, global harmonization leads to a deadlock. Because at the end, survival of humanity is directly dependent on the maximum diversity of people (ethnic groups) on the Earth that it contains. Significant simplification of the system, mixing of races and peoples - a direct path to degradation and loss. Economic policy of the modern elite, in fact, is a wrong way, which quickly lead to the depletion of natural, intellectual and economic potential not only of its particularly country but all over the world.

The current demographic situation in Ukraine is characterized by stable depopulation. By 1992 the number of Ukrainian population grew and accounted 52,244,100 people. Thereafter, this numbers steadily decreased. On Jan 01, 2007 the total number of Ukrainian population was 46,646,000 persons, and already on May 01, 2007 it already reduced to 46,533,710.

Reluctance to have children half of the families explain by the lack of financial sustainability. Despite the fact that the family, motherhood and childhood are under protection of the State according to Article 51 of the Constitution of Ukraine, the actual support of the State for families with children is really insufficient.

Depopulation, which began after 1992, is a direct result of our unbalanced social policies related to birth control and family planning. If the population extinct, the state must offer a new demographic and family policy that is in favor of family, childhood and motherhood, supported by competent legal initiatives. Political leaders and government institutions must offer the necessary legislative solution, which should immediately guarantee that the depopulation of the Ukrainian population will not become a steady threat to national security of Ukraine.

The overall situation is deteriorating under the circumstances which rudely interrupted natural connection between generations. Seniors in the modern era has nothing to convey to youngers. They live in different eras, because global transformation processes in society and the state led to the devastating destruction of the traditional. This broke the way of transmission of experience to the next generations.

In this context, is not superfluous to draw attention to the gender policy, based on sex differences, which determines the specific behavior of men and women in this society. In other words, the goal is to erase the line between man and woman, creating ideological position of children in this regard.

Government makes certain steps to improve the demographic situation in Ukraine. However, they are not characterized by systematic approach. These sometime bright measures are made occasionally, not in the system, and primarily have the purpose to achieve political goals.

Summing up, we can say that in terms of national security, the population decline facilitates demographic and financial control over the country and its territory, which at the end leads to situation that there will be nobody will defend it.


Full text of this Analytical Paper you can read in Ukrainian here or in Russian here.